Do competitors' deals cost us sales

We see competitors' deals, never their sales. What we can measure is our own: when a competitor starts a deal in a family, did our sales of that family move?

How it is measured

• Their deals, dated. Dutchie menus send a store's whole deal list, ended deals included, with start and end dates, and every fetch keeps it. On 7 October 2026 that was about 1,900 deals at one competitor and 1,700 at another. Jane menus send only live deals, and some Dutchie stores keep only their live ones in the list, so those stores build their history from 7 October 2026 on. An ended deal lists no items, so its family is read from its name; a name that names none ("10 Visit Reward") is left out.
• Launches. A store's deals in one family that start within a week of each other are one launch.
• One reading per launch. Your units and gross profit in that family for up to two weeks after it, against the four weeks before, each day divided by the demand forecast's weekday and holiday multipliers, and set against the rest of the store over the same days. A weekday deal ("Munchie Monday") is read on its weekdays only. The store's next launch in the family ends the window.
• Pooled per competitor and family, steadied toward every competitor's value, with an 80% range. Launches you answered (your own promoted share of the family rose by 10 points or more while theirs ran) are compared with ones you did not: that difference is what answering earned.

When it shows a figure

A competitor and family needs 8 measured launches, and the weekly run's back-test must pass: each launch is predicted from the ones before it and must come closer than assuming their deals do nothing. Until both hold, the screens say "Can't judge" or "Doesn't beat no effect" and show no dollars.

On the first run at one BudLogix store (sales to 4 October 2026) 147 launches were measured and the back-test did not pass (57 held out). Their deals have not moved your sales by more than chance, so nothing is shown.

Where it appears

• Compare tab on Pricing > Competitors: one row per competitor and family, with how many launches it rests on and, when there are too few, about when it will have enough at that store's pace.
• Plan a promotion, under Timing: each competitor running deals in the planned family today, on which days, and what its deals did to yours.

What runs by itself

Weekly, Sunday at 6:10 am Eastern, after the demand forecast. A failed run is stored with its reason and the previous fit stays in use.

Settings it depends on

pricing_tiers.competitor_response.enabled (on) and min_deals (8), set by BudLogix.

Related

• Compare promotions with competitors
• Plan a promotion